A plan in its most basic form consists of two parts: If, then.
If certain conditions arise (triggers), then you will take certain actions (strategies).
Why plan?
We can’t control the weather or climate but planning can help you prioritize what you care most about, build long and short-term strategies, and set key dates to reduce uncertainty in decisions with regard to drought.
A plan can also help you define key indicators that are important to you (ecologic, economic, and health). Some drought mitigation strategies take years to build (i.e. new infrastructure, new land acquisition, riparian corridor development, revamping a business model, herd development, etc.), and it’s easy to put them on the back burner when conditions improve.
Having a plan can help you take action for things that take years of effort, even if this plan may not bear fruit until the next drought. But thinking through a drought plan can help you act according to what’s most important when that next drought comes, improve long-term viability, and reduce the stress of decision-making in the moment.
A drought plan consists of four parts:
- Goals: First, you should define specific goals for your ranch operation.
- Triggers: Next, define “trigger points” for decisions, i.e. what information will prompt an action within your drought plan.
- Strategies: What tactics and strategies can you utilize to reduce the economic, ecological, and social impacts of drought?
- Assessment: Deliberately learn about how well your plan worked and how you can adjust for the future.
Goals and Scenarios
Setting Goals
Goals can help you reflect upon what you really want to accomplish or preserve. Given limited resources, they can help you focus on what’s most important. They relate to defining what you want your legacy to be – from a business, personal, and ecological perspective.
Developing Scenarios
Creating plausible but fictional scenarios about what might happen in a drought situation can help push your thinking to include different types of drought and impacts. Scenarios are used by emergency management professionals to “rehearse” their responses in a disaster like a forest fire. Doing something similar may also help you and your operation think outside the box. Doing such an exercise doesn’t have to be complex. It can be as simple as identifying a few different potential scenarios and planning your response to each.
Understanding Triggers
“Triggers” are used in drought planning as a specific sign that activates a management response. A trigger might be percent of average precipitation or a stock pond that fills (or doesn’t) by a certain date coupled with an action like “de-stock by a certain amount” or other action.
For example, a Nebraska ranch has formulated their trigger this way:
- They usually receive 75% of the precipitation between Nov. and June 15.
- If they receive less than 80% of average precipitation between Nov. 1 and June 15, they estimate that the forage crop will be reduced by 30%, and de-stock accordingly (de-stock 30% by weight).
- A “trigger date” should be something that is meaningful to you, and greatly depends on the operation type, and where the operation is. There is not one indicator that is appropriate for all operations. The key is a point at which monitoring information prompts a specific decision within a drought plan.
- It can help reduce stress and, in a livestock framework, it can help encourage early decision-making (i.e., deciding you may not have enough forage and culling calves early, etc.), before feeding hay or other decisions that may have expensive ramifications.
Considerations by region
Generally, long-term winter forecasts have higher predictive power in Colorado, while long-term summer forecasts are only marginally better than flipping a coin.
- Eastern Plains: A 70-year experiment revealed that a majority of cattle weight gain could be explained by long-term forecasts (like El Nino/ La Nina). For eastern Colorado, GrassCast is one tool to understand forecasts for forage production. This tool gives estimates based on precipitation scenarios and years of rangeland production data.
- Colorado Plateau/Valleys: In western Colorado, the bulk of forage production comes from cool season grasses, which stop producing when temperatures reach 75 degrees. Spring precipitation is essential as the period most favorable to grass growth. Some of our years of highest production in recent memory were years with very wet, cool springs.
- Mountains: Monsoons are hard to predict, and essential for high mountain forage, since cooler temperatures allow grass to grow for a longer period.
Strategies and Evaluation
Make longer term investments and introduce new strategies to build resilience to drought and identify what to do at your specific predefined decision points (triggers).
Livestock systems
- Consider annual forage options.
- Consider drought-resilient breeds.
- Diversifying the herd: Explore flexible stock strategies, i.e. diversification of livestock type. Some producers use yearlings to be able to flex stocking in response to drought, or conversely, with regards to increased production in wet years. Studies have shown that having yearlings as a component of the herd can increase returns substantially, but it also means increased production costs and risk, as well as not being appropriate for all scenarios (view study). With increased swings in forage availability year to year, the study also found that a 50:50 allocation of available forage to cow-calf and yearling enterprises.
- Building resilience to drought with rangeland management strategies: Grazing management, or managing the intensity, frequency, and timing of grazing on rangelands is critical for mitigating impacts of drought to Colorado rangelands. The phrase “intensity of grazing” refers to the number of animals and duration of grazing on a particular pasture (i.e. stocking rate). Heavily grazed pastures show greater reductions in forage production during drought than lightly or moderately grazed pastures. Excessive removal of green leafy material during the growing season reduces root growth and replacement, decreasing the ability of plants to harvest solar energy and soil moisture needed for maintenance and growth. Learn more about Rangeland Management Before, During and After Drought.
- If this describes a chronic situation for you and your operation, it might be a good time to make a grazing plan. The first step in this is assessing your forage demand relative to supply. From there, the next step is to develop a plan on how you can better manage the intensity, frequency, and timing of grazing. This can be complex, and depends on your operation, land ownership types, and beyond. To begin the process, you can contact a regional range management specialist. Technical assistance and cost-share is also available through the Natural Resources Conservation Service. Contact your local service office for more information.
Evaluation
What did you learn? Did your plan function as expected? How can you adjust and make improvements for the future?